We called support - two issues -->
- The certificate for the connection server goes in in the personal store, not the trusted certificate authorities as the other post mentions (I think that was for a security server). So we moved it back (it was in Personal when this first failed but we moved it during troubleshooting).
- Support instructed us to uninstall vCOPS. We uninstalled and the Connection server was fine after a restart.
So for us it was uninstalling vCOPs - when we are done upgrading we will re-install it.